Historical and Future Asymmetry of ENSO Teleconnections with Extremes

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of climate variability globally. Many of the most devastating impacts of ENSO are felt through extremes. Here, we present and describe a spatially complete global synthesis of extreme temperature and precipitation relationships with ENSO. We also investigate how these relationships evolve under a future warming scenario under high greenhouse gas emissions using 14 models from phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) ensemble. First, we demonstrate that models broadly capture observed ENSO teleconnections to mean and extreme climate using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 3 (20CRv3). The models project that mor..